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Updated: Lima, Peru - July 26, 2020 - 09:51
A. Jair Montes Arias[1][2]
I would like to highlight that I am not an expert in this field, but I am really trying to make a contribution through the data analysis.
I) It seems that there is a relevant effect produced by natural herbal drinks against the Coronavirus. I will quote some investigations that I have been researching during the last weeks, which support this position.
* The altitude factor is a typical characteristic correlated with natural herbal drinks. However, the Brazilian case helps to analyze a case in which the “mate” factor is more relevant.
1) Some cities at the highlands in Peru show a very low number of infected by COVID 19, in comparison to the number of cases is the rainforest and coast zone (specially attention to Ayacucho, a place where drinking eucalyptus is very typical. Ayacucho has only 105 cases per 100,000 citizens and has only 1 death per 100,000 citizens. On the other hand, Lima - the capital of Peru - has 921 cases per 100, 000 citizens and has 16 death per 100,000 citizens. On average, cities from the coastal region and jungle- where people do not drink herbal natural drinks and there was no abide of the social distance– have 600 cases per 100,000 citizens, compared to the 120 cases per 100,000 citizens in the Andean highland cities.
2) Argentina: Low number of cases, despite the fact that the quarantine was not implemented with severity. This is a country in which its citizens usually drink mate.
3) Paraguay: Low number of cases. It is a country where citizens usually drink mate, known as Terere.
4) Uruguay: Low number of cases. Its citizens have the habit of drinking mate.
5) Cities of the south of Brazil (where citizens usually drink mate): I searched for a big country to separate effects and that only in some cities drink beverages such as mate: the 26 states of Brazil provided that volatility of characteristics. I ordered the number of cases from highest to lowest (normalized by population) and found that the states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande Sur are ranked in the 26°, 19° and 21° position, respectively.
6) China: Tibet vs Wuhan. In Tibet, only one case has been recorded and, in this city, it is famous the Tibetan tea. Furthermore, the average temperature in Tibet in the first six months of the year is 8° Celsius vs the average temperature of 18° Celsius in Wuhan, with a warm weather.
* People from cold cities have the habit of drinking natural herbal drinks, in comparison to people from cities with warmer climates. One clear example of this difference in this tradition - applied to the Peruvian case - is showed between Lima citizens and Huancayo citizens.
7) Madagascar (Artemisa): The artemisa plant demonstrated effectiveness in the treatment of malaria and the government has suggested the elaboration of herbal beverage based on this plant to fight the coronavirus.
8) Bolivia: La Paz vs Santa Cruz y Beni. Santa Cruz and Beni are the two more affected cities in Bolivia and both are two of the warmest cities with 25° and 26° Celsius on average, respectively. In contrast, La Paz has presented few cases and its citizens usually drink hot drinks due to the cold weather.
9) Ecuador: Guayaquil is one of the most affected cities in Latin America and its weather is too warm (28° Celsius, on average). I don’t consider it is common to drink herbal drink because of its high temperatures.
10) Colombia: The most affected cities are the ones from the coast (similar situation in Peru), which usually have warm weather.
II) https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200403-coronavirus-will-hot-drinks-protect-you-from-covid-19
This article highlights that there is no positive effect in the use of hot drinks (Natural Drinks). However, from my point of view, the article does not disaggregate the investigation by cities, but it studies the country as a homogenous group of people. In addition, the next sentence made me paid special attention: “Some initial studies have suggested it can take up to 30 hours from the first cells being infected, to the point where the virus bursts out to infect more cells”. This sentence suggests to eliminate the virus in the first 30 hours, because, after this time, it is very difficult to do it, due to the development of the virus in the organism.
As I mentioned at the beginning, I am not an expert in the Healthcare sector, but, based on the 10 examples I found, I could highlight some ways to find a cure against this virus. There are too many people at risk and I just want to help using my analytical skill!
The principal webpage for data is the following:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
PS. Not many people know this: I am economist, dedicated to the Finance field, but some people of my family are related to the healthcare sector (Medicine and Dentistry). Furthermore, I learned the importance of the natural herbs, because a great part of my family is from Huancayo. My grandfather (Adolfo Arias Arana, my best friend forever) was from Huancayo, Peru and he passed away in 2019. However, he taught me many lessons during my life.
My four grandparents already passed away, but they taught me the importance of natural plants. This research is a tribute to them: Adolfo Arias Arana / Teresa Paz Porras / Mercedes Adrianzén de Montes / Elías Montes Munive
Best regards,
Jair Montes Arias, CFA, FRM, CQF
Research Sources
1) Differences in the reported cases in the Peruvian regions. in order to study the detail data of Peru, I recommend to look this public information:
https://www.minsa.gob.pe/reunis/data/defunciones_registradas.asp
- The graph points out the number of confirmed cases (per 100K habitants). It shows that the regions at a high altitude have less confirmed cases (adjusted by population). The graph was made by Derry QA.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157413692463597&set=a.10150448928498597&type=3&theater
- The next graph shows the difference of the daily average of deaths for each million of people per week. This graph was made by FJRA, Source: MINSA, https://covid19.minsa.gob.pe/sala_situacional.asp
- Today, Peru is in the 10th position with 6520 cases for each million of population.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
2) Argentina
- Based on information until June 7th, Argentina is in the 91st position with 488 for each million of population.
Source:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
3) Paraguay
- Based on information until June 7th, Paraguay is in the 148th position with 159 for each million of population.
Source:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
- In this country, it is typitcal to drink Tereré in the mornings. I talked with a friend from this country and he told me: “Approximately, 90% of the population drinks every day”.
Source:https://www.196flavors.com/es/paraguay-terere/
4) Uruguay
- Based on information until June 7th, Paraguay is in the 127th position with 243 for each million of population.
Source:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
5) Brazilian south cities
- Considering 26 states in brazil, I sorted the number of cases from the highest to the lowest (adjusted by 100K people); analyzing the results, I found that the states of Parana, Santa Catarina y Rio Grande Sur are in the 26th, 19th and 21st position respectively. These three states have an strong influence from Paraguay and Argentina, and because of this influence they also drink Mate.
Source:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/americas/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html
6) China: Tibet and Hubei
- There is only one case registered in Tibet
Source: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=es-419&mid=/m/0f8nf&gl=US&ceid=US:es-419
- The Tibetan Tea has interesting properties worth to study.
- This a study of the monthly average temperature in Tibet.
Source: https://www.tibettravel.org/tibet-weather/
- Hubei has 68,135 registered cases
Sources: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=es-419&mid=%2Fm%2F0lbl6&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aes-419
- This is a study of the monthly average temperature in Wuhan.
Source: https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Rainfall-Temperature-Sunshine,Wuhan,China
7) Madagascar (Artemisa)
- The plant: “Artemisa” showed an effective treatment against Malaria and the government has suggest herbal drink made of this plant to fight the coronavirus.
- Based on information until June 7th, Madagascar is in the 186th position with 38 for each million of population.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
8) Bolivia: La Paz vs Santa Cruz y Beni
- Santa Cruz y Beni are the two of the most affected cities and both are also two of the warmest cities with 25° and 26° Celsius in average. In contrast to these cities, La Paz has registered few coronavirus cases and its population has as a custom to drink hot beverages because of the weather.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/15d8dac6-b3d4-4b6b-b128-70f99bef3c36#comments-anchor
- Based on information until June 7th, Bolivia is in the 64th position with 1445 for each million of population.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
9) Ecuador: Guayaquil
- The most critical city in this country is Guayaquil, which has registered the most critical number of coronavirus cases.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/15d8dac6-b3d4-4b6b-b128-70f99bef3c36#comments-anchor
- Based on information until June 7th, Ecuador is in the 41th position with 2447 for each million of population.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
10) Colombia
- This article is important because it is a critical city of contagion despite of its latitude.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/15d8dac6-b3d4-4b6b-b128-70f99bef3c36#comments-anchor
- Based on information until June 7th, Colombia is in the 75th position with 772 for each million of population.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
* The idea of natural drinks came from having studied the subject of factor investing in the Master of Finance at MIT.
Web page of my professor Jun Pan: http://en.saif.sjtu.edu.cn/junpan/
* Thanks a lot to all my friends around the world who have helped with this research: answering my calls, sharing their referrals with me, among other activities! I will always be so grateful with you.
* I have shared with you all my research sources. I have worked many days in this topic and I will be doing it for my country and the world.
[1] Grateful to my father, Alfredo Montes Adrianzén, who helped me with incredible ideas because of his job: he is an incredible doctor. Grateful to my mother, Ana María Arias Paz, who helped me with incredible ideas because of her knowledge of Peruvian cases: she is an incredible dentist.
[2] Grateful to Erick Infante Acosta, who helped with the translation of the original text.
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